Life Insurance Reserving AI — VM-20, PBR & Actuarial

Life Insurance Reserving and AI

VM-20 principle-based reserving requires actuaries to document assumptions, test prescribed economic scenarios, run stochastic models, and write extensive actuarial memoranda — work that is analytically intensive and documentation-heavy. Claude with FinSkilz accelerates the documentation and analytical explanation work: structuring assumption memos, explaining stochastic results, drafting VM-31 memorandum sections, and performing sensitivity analysis on reserve drivers.

Net Premium Reserve (NPR) Framework

• "Explain the VM-20 net premium reserve calculation for a 20-year level term policy: male, age 45, non-smoker, face amount $500,000, issue date 2023. The NPR uses: (1) 2017 CSO mortality table (gender-distinct); (2) 4.0% valuation interest rate; (3) net premium = benefit premium calculated using CSO and valuation rate. Walk through the NPR formula step by step: calculate the net single premium, annual net premium, reserve at end of policy year 1, year 5, year 10."
• "Compute the NPR exemption test for our term insurance block: total reserve under NPR = $42.6M. Is this below the simplified method threshold? The exemption allows companies to use the simplified method (Commissioner's method) if NPR × adjustment factor is below the deterministic reserve by less than [threshold]. Show the NPR vs deterministic reserve comparison and whether this block qualifies for the simplified method."

Deterministic Reserve and Cash Flow Testing

• "Structure the deterministic reserve cash flow testing for a UL product block: the DR requires projecting policyholder cash flows (premiums, benefits, lapses, expenses) under the prescribed economic scenario. Assumptions: mortality per VM-20 Section 3, lapses per company experience study, expenses per pricing assumptions with prescribed margins. Discount using the net asset earned rate (portfolio rate method). Explain the 6 prescribed scenarios and how to determine which produces the highest reserve."
• "Perform the deterministic reserve sensitivity analysis: base case DR $85.4M. Sensitivity tests required by VM-20: (1) mortality +10%: $87.2M; (2) lapse rates -20%: $89.6M; (3) interest rate +100bps: $82.1M; (4) expenses +5%: $86.0M. Identify the largest reserve driver and describe the business impact. Draft the sensitivity table for the VM-31 actuarial memorandum."

Stochastic Reserve and CTE70

• "Interpret the stochastic reserve output from our VM-20 model: 10,000 scenarios generated using Academy prescribed economic scenarios. Sorted reserve values by scenario outcome. The 3,000th worst scenario (70th percentile) has reserve $94.2M. CTE70 = average of scenarios 1 through 3,000 = $98.7M. The deterministic reserve under the worst prescribed scenario is $85.4M. The stochastic reserve (CTE70) binds: SR $98.7M > DR $85.4M > NPR $78.3M. Required reserve = $98.7M. Explain this result in the VM-31 memo language."
• "Explain the Academy prescribed economic scenarios for VM-20 stochastic testing: the 16 deterministic scenarios cover interest rate paths (up, down, level, volatile) and equity return scenarios. The stochastic scenario generator produces interest rates using a mean-reverting model with prescribed parameters. Why does VM-20 use prescribed scenarios rather than company-generated scenarios? What is the regulator's rationale for standardizing the interest rate model?"

Assumption Documentation and VM-31

• "Draft the mortality assumption section for the VM-31 actuarial memorandum: our company uses the 2015 VBT (Valuation Basic Table) for best estimate mortality, applying a 90% factor for preferred lives and 115% for standard lives. VM-20 margins: +7.5% margin on best estimate mortality for the NPR; mortality margins for DR are as specified in VM-20 Section 9.C. Describe the assumption derivation, credibility weighting with industry tables, and VM-20 compliance."
• "Draft the lapse assumption documentation: our policyholder experience study shows shock lapse at policy year 10 (end of level term period) of 72%. First-year lapse 8%, renewal years 4-6% annually. We are applying a VM-20 prescribed margin of +20% on lapse rates above 10% shock. Explain how anti-selective lapsation could affect reserves and why the lapse margin exists. Draft the VM-31 lapse section in regulatory actuarial memo style."

Where to Start

Start with the assumption documentation — it is the most text-intensive part of VM-31 and where AI adds the most immediate value. Describe your mortality table, lapse experience study, and expense assumptions, then ask Claude to draft the regulatory-style documentation section. For stochastic model outputs, paste the CTE distribution and ask Claude to interpret the results and draft the narrative for the appointed actuary's memo.